M. Camara; N.R.B. Jamil; A.F.B. Abdullah; R.B. Hashim
Abstract
Predicting land use change is an indispensable aspect in identifying the best development and management of land resources and their potential. This study used certified land-use maps of 1997, 2006, and 2015 combined with ancillary data such as road networks, water bodies and slopes, obtained from the ...
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Predicting land use change is an indispensable aspect in identifying the best development and management of land resources and their potential. This study used certified land-use maps of 1997, 2006, and 2015 combined with ancillary data such as road networks, water bodies and slopes, obtained from the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Surveying and Mapping in Malaysia, respectively. The prediction of future land use changes in the Selangor River basin in Malaysia was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model. The transition probability matrices were computed using the land use conditions of the periods 1997-2006, 2006-2015, 1997-2015. The performance of the model was very good in its overall ability to simulate the actual land use map of 2015, with the index values of 0.92% and 0.97%, respectively for Kappa for no information and Kappa for grid-cell level location which indicated the reliability of the model to successfully simulate land use changes in 2024 and 2033. Based on the expected results, the future urban area will grow faster (33%) over the next two decades, leading to a decline in forest area that is expected to lose 8% of its total space during these periods. Agricultural land will increase to 4%, while water bodies will change slightly increasing to 1%, and other areas of land use will likely become reservoirs of water, topsoil or new green spaces shrinking at 30%. Given the importance of knowledge of future land use in addressing the problems of uncontrolled development on environmental quality, this study could be valuable for land use planners of the river basin largely covered by natural forest. The study however, suggests future research to integrate geospatial techniques with biophysical and socio-economic factors in simulating land use trends.
Environmental Management
H.A. Khawaldah; I. Farhan; N.M. Alzboun
Abstract
This study analyzes the characteristics of land use/land cover change in Jordan’s Irbid governorate, 1984–2018, and predicts future land use/land cover for 2030 and 2050 using a cellular automata-Markov model. The results inform planners and decision makers of past and current spatial dynamics ...
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This study analyzes the characteristics of land use/land cover change in Jordan’s Irbid governorate, 1984–2018, and predicts future land use/land cover for 2030 and 2050 using a cellular automata-Markov model. The results inform planners and decision makers of past and current spatial dynamics of land use/land cover change and predicted urban expansion, for a better understanding and successful planning. Satellite images of Landsat 5-thematic mapper and Landsat 8 operational land imager for the years 1984, 1994, 2004, 2015 and 2018 were used to explore the characteristics of land use/land cover for this study. The results indicate that the built-up area expanded by 386.9% during the study period and predict further expansion by 19.5% and 64.6% from 2015 to 2030 and 2050 respectively. The areas around the central and eastern parts of the governorate are predicted to have significant expansion of the built-up area by these dates, which should be taken into consideration in future plans. Land use/land cover change and urban expansion in Irbid are primarily caused by the high rate of population growth rate as a direct result of receiving large numbers of immigrants from Syria and Palestine in addition to the natural increase of population and other socio-economic changes.
