Document Type: ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER

Authors

• S. Kozlovskyi ¹
• D. Bilenko ²
• M. Kuzheliev ²
• R. Lavrov ³
• V. Kozlovskyi ⁴
• H. Mazur ⁵
• A. Taranych ⁶

¹ Department of Entrepreneurship, Corporate and Spatial Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk, National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

² Department of Finance named after L.l. Tarangul, University of State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, Irpin, Ukraine

³ Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, Chernihiv National University of Technology, Chernihiv, Ukraine

⁴ Department of Enterprise Economics and Production Management, Vinnytsia National Technical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

⁵ Vinnytsia Regional Council, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

⁶ Department of Marketing, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

Abstract

At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) spread widely from China all over the world. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a new virus outbreak as “a global pandemic”, and recommended social distancing and quarantine. Most countries in Europe have been quarantined. The social aspect of this issue is complicated by the fact that Europe nowadays hosts 82 million international migrants. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid-19 spread. Nevertheless, if migrant workers do not return, it will worsen the situation with the economic crisis. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of impact simulation of labor migrants’ policy on the economic growth of the host country affected by COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing labor migrants’ policy impact on the economic growth of the host country during COVID-19 pandemic. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid-19 pandemic. The proposed model combines epidemiological and the economic growth models and relies upon real statistical data. The analysis was carried out in four European countries. The results of the study enabled to state that without migrant workers the gross domestic product may fall to 43% in Italy, 45% in Netherlands, 37% in Spain and 200% in Switzerland in 2020.

Graphical Abstract

Highlights

• Proposed an approach to simulation economic development scenarios and migrant’s policy taking into account the Covid-19 pandemic;
• Causal loop diagram of impact of labor migrants policy on the host country economic growth in Covid-19 pandemic and structure of epidemiological and economic growth models were built;
• Results simulation that migrant workers department policies have a greater impact on reducing GDP than Covid-19 mortality was obtained;
• Migrant workers should stay in the host country during a Covid-19 pandemic period, because economic crisis deepens further without their labor, making economic growth impossible.

Keywords

• Covid-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic
• Epidemiological model
• Economic growth
• Gross domestic product
• Migrant worker
• System dynamics model

Main Subjects

• Environmental health and ecotoxicology