1 Department of Entrepreneurship and Business, Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design, Kyiv, Ukraine

2 Office of the Project, Integrated Development in Ukraine, Poltava, Ukraine

3 National University, Yuri Kondratyuk Poltava Polytechnic, Poltava, Ukraine


This study provides a comprehensive scientific analysis of contemporary problems resulted from the forced migration of the Ukrainian population and its impact on the sustainable development of 47 host communities of Poltava region. By means of cluster analysis 4 clusters of 26 rural territories were identified. They differ in the size of local budgets and the involvement level of forcedly displaced population into the local economy. Factor analysis showed that the involvement level of forcedly displaced population in the region's economy is determined by 2 groups according to 10 indicators. 8 indicators of the first factor determine 2/3 of the dispersion of refugees' impact on rural economy. The first factor reduces the gross regional product by 61.75%. The indicators of the second factor shows a positive impact and determines 15% of the dispersion. The use of game theory to identify conflicts of interest between refugees and host communities was justified. The reasonability to use the taxonomy method to construct a map of positioning rural areas according to the size of local budgets and the degree of integration of refugees is justified. The use of the created map identified the “growth points” in particular clusters. As a result of the implementation of the proposed conflict resolution mechanism between refugees and host communities, the budget of the rural areas of the first cluster increased by 18%, the second cluster by 14.5%, the third cluster by 13%, the fourth by 8%, refugee participation by 30%.

Graphical Abstract

Impact of forced migration on the sustainable development of rural territories


  • A new approach to resolving conflicts of interest between forcedly displaced population and host communities through game theory has been proposed;
  • Two key factors have been identified as influencing forced migration on sustainable rural development. The first factor (community maintenance costs) reduces the gross domestic product by 61.75%. The second factor (refugee entrepreneurial activity) increases the budget of rural areas by 15%;
  • A map of the positioning of rural areas in Poltava region of Ukraine has been developed on the size of local budgets and the level of integration of refugees;
  • The proposed methodology allows identifying active "growth points" in Quadrants 2 and 3 of the rural area positioning map;
  • The use of 30% of refugee potential and economic activity increases the rural budget of the first cluster by 18%, the second cluster by 14.5%, the third cluster by 13%, the fourth cluster by 8%.


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