Document Type: ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER

Authors

1 Department of Mechanical Engineering, North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology, Itanagar, India

2 Department of Electrical Engineering, North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology, Itanagar, India

3 Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Yupia, India

Abstract

Artificial neural network is considered one of the most efficient methods in processing huge data sets that can be analyzed computationally to reveal patterns, trends, prediction, forecasting etc. It has a great prospective in engineering as well as in medical applications. The present work employs artificial neural network-based curve fitting techniques in prediction and forecasting of the Covid-19 number of rising cases and death cases in India, USA, France, and UK, considering the progressive trends of China and South Korea. In this paper, three cases are considered to analyze the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic viz., (i) forecasting as per the present trend of rising cases of different countries (ii) forecasting of one week following up with the improvement trends as per China and South Korea, and (iii) forecasting if followed up the progressive trends as per China and South Korea before a week. The results have shown that ANN can efficiently forecast the future cases of COVID 19 outbreak of any country. The study shows that the confirmed cases of India, USA, France and UK could be about 50,000 to 1,60,000, 12,00,000 to 17,00,000, 1,40,000 to 1,50,000 and 2,40,000 to 2,50,000 respectively and may take about 2 to 10 months based on progressive trends of China and South Korea.  Similarly, the death toll for these countries just before controlling could be about 1600 to 4000 for India, 1,35,000 to 1,00,000 for USA, 40,000 to 55,000 for France, 35,000 to 47,000 for UK during the same period of study.

Graphical Abstract

Highlights

  • The study presents a new method of intelligent based optimum curve fitting and forecasting for different non-linear models;
  • Three numbers of cases are considered to analyse the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic viz., i) case forecasting as per the present trend of rising cases of different countries ii) case forecasting considering one week ahead of follow up with the improvement trends as per China and South Korea, and iii) case forecasting with one week delay and subsequently following the present progressive trends as per China and South Korea;
  • The results have shown that artificial neural networks can efficiently train any set of country’s data trend based on the input training data set to forecast the future cases of some countries.

Keywords

Main Subjects

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