Environmental Management
V. G. Shcherbak; I. Gryshchenko; L. Ganushchak-Yefimenko; O. Nifatova; V. Tkachuk; T. Kostiuk; V. Hotra
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A new wave of Covid-19 pandemic has worsened the epidemiological situation in Ukraine. This caused the need to tighten quarantine measures that have been introduced since 31.08.2020. The conducted analysis showed that there are 3 groups of technologies for digital contact tracing: ...
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A new wave of Covid-19 pandemic has worsened the epidemiological situation in Ukraine. This caused the need to tighten quarantine measures that have been introduced since 31.08.2020. The conducted analysis showed that there are 3 groups of technologies for digital contact tracing: from maximum (25%) to minimum (20%). Objective of the study is to develop an exchange platform to track the spread of COVID-19 in rural areas.METHODS: Factor analysis identified key factors of COVID-19 virus spread. Cluster analysis identified clusters of COVID-19 spread. Taxonomy method established the limits of using contact tracing methods. Discriminatory method makes it possible to change the applied contact tracing method.FINDINGS: The results showed that the identified factors (medico-demographic special features of Covid-19 virus spread; rural infrastructure to counteract the infection) describe in total 83.24% of the data processed. Specified 4 clusters differ in the level of susceptibility of the population to COVID-19 and infrastructure development: from minimum (33% of the united territorial communities) to maximum - 13% of the united territorial communities. The value of the integral indicator calculated provides means for establishing the maximum (8.5) and the minimum (2) limit of changes in the method of digital contact tracing.CONCLUSION: The developed methodology was implemented on the basis of the united territorial communities of Sumy region. Monitoring of changes in the epidemiological situation made it possible to justify the need to change the contact tracing model, which will reduce the epidemiological level in the region as a whole by 30%.
Environmental Management
S.K. Tamang; P.D. Singh; B. Datta
Abstract
Artificial neural network is considered one of the most efficient methods in processing huge data sets that can be analyzed computationally to reveal patterns, trends, prediction, forecasting etc. It has a great prospective in engineering as well as in medical applications. The present work employs artificial ...
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Artificial neural network is considered one of the most efficient methods in processing huge data sets that can be analyzed computationally to reveal patterns, trends, prediction, forecasting etc. It has a great prospective in engineering as well as in medical applications. The present work employs artificial neural network-based curve fitting techniques in prediction and forecasting of the Covid-19 number of rising cases and death cases in India, USA, France, and UK, considering the progressive trends of China and South Korea. In this paper, three cases are considered to analyze the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic viz., (i) forecasting as per the present trend of rising cases of different countries (ii) forecasting of one week following up with the improvement trends as per China and South Korea, and (iii) forecasting if followed up the progressive trends as per China and South Korea before a week. The results have shown that ANN can efficiently forecast the future cases of COVID 19 outbreak of any country. The study shows that the confirmed cases of India, USA, France and UK could be about 50,000 to 1,60,000, 12,00,000 to 17,00,000, 1,40,000 to 1,50,000 and 2,40,000 to 2,50,000 respectively and may take about 2 to 10 months based on progressive trends of China and South Korea. Similarly, the death toll for these countries just before controlling could be about 1600 to 4000 for India, 1,35,000 to 1,00,000 for USA, 40,000 to 55,000 for France, 35,000 to 47,000 for UK during the same period of study.
