Environmental Management
S. Kozlovskyi; D. Bilenko; M. Kuzheliev; R. Lavrov; V. Kozlovskyi; H. Mazur; A. Taranych
Abstract
At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) spread widely from China all over the world. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a new virus outbreak as “a global pandemic”, and recommended social distancing and quarantine. Most countries in Europe ...
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At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) spread widely from China all over the world. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a new virus outbreak as “a global pandemic”, and recommended social distancing and quarantine. Most countries in Europe have been quarantined. The social aspect of this issue is complicated by the fact that Europe nowadays hosts 82 million international migrants. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid-19 spread. Nevertheless, if migrant workers do not return, it will worsen the situation with the economic crisis. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of impact simulation of labor migrants’ policy on the economic growth of the host country affected by COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing labor migrants’ policy impact on the economic growth of the host country during COVID-19 pandemic. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid-19 pandemic. The proposed model combines epidemiological and the economic growth models and relies upon real statistical data. The analysis was carried out in four European countries. The results of the study enabled to state that without migrant workers the gross domestic product may fall to 43% in Italy, 45% in Netherlands, 37% in Spain and 200% in Switzerland in 2020.
S. Kozlovskyi; L. Nikolenko; O. Peresada; O. Pokhyliuk; O. Yatchuk; N. Bolgarova; O. Kulhanik
Abstract
In the context of globalization of economic development processes, the issue of determining the level of public welfare of economic agents is particularly burning. The object of ehis study is the process of assessing welfare of the economic entities system. The subject of the study is the instrumental ...
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In the context of globalization of economic development processes, the issue of determining the level of public welfare of economic agents is particularly burning. The object of ehis study is the process of assessing welfare of the economic entities system. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of modeling and measuring the public welfare. The aim of the work is to develop the mathematical model for measuring the welfare of Ukraine using methods of intellectual analysis, namely, the theory of fuzzy sets. The output of the study is a new approach to objective estimation of public welfare of the state. It is proposed to assess the level of public welfare of the state on the basis of a mathematical model developed on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets. Input factors of the model are international indices and indicators, such as Index of Economic Freedom, Global Peace Index, Democracy Index, Corruption Perceptions Index, Human Development Index, Prosperity Index, Global Competitiveness Index as well as an indicator that reflects the characteristic property of the Ukrainian economy, namely the minimum living wage. Developed mathematical model for assessment of the level of public welfare of Ukraine and made a prediction of the indicator by 2024 on the basis of the above indices. The results of the study allowed us to establish that the level of public welfare (units) in Ukraine on a scale from 0 to 100 will be equal to 25, 17, 32, 26, and 28 in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, accordingly.
